Saturday, October 24, 2009

Real Estate Is 'somewhat' Forecastable

According to Robert Shiller, statistical studies of forecasting models for home prices show that roughly half of the variability of home prices can be predicted one year ahead.

In the US (I'll explore this for Canada as well)...you will have just as much luck proving that cities with good feng shui will cause an increase in prices than as you would with building costs, population, or interest rates (see below).



The home price index that Shiller uses is a national index, therefore it doesn't take into account Regional booms that result from the building of infrastructure (services for new land, community centre, schools etc), attracting of new employers (a manufacturing plant) or the addition of better transportation (rail, canals, highways subways).

Moral of the story: study more than just one fundamental when looking to see where home prices are going