Read a blog post from Garth posted in December 2008 (Where Risk Lies)
Here are some of Garth's predictions:
- Falling house values until at least 2010
- Banks suspend dividend payments to stockholders
- Reduced exports and corporate failures as the US tries to protect jobs
- Fewer services as governments at all level struggle with a funding crisis
- Bankruptcy of major Ontario homebuilders
- Scaling back of 2010 Olympics in Vancouver
- Canadian dollar falls with oil into 60-cent US range
- Ottawa suspends social benefits. Pensions, child benefits etc. only for needy
- Widespread shortages of food, gasoline, home heating fuels
- Mass migration from urban, suburban areas, especially in GTA, as people flee crime and seek self-sufficiency
So does that mean, after the lack of physical proof Garth would ease up on his beliefs?
From his latest blog post...no?
So what does one do when they lack physical proof? They seek out social proof.
The principle of social proof states: The greater the number of people who find an idea correct, the more the given individual will perceive the idea as being correct.
Interesting to see that Garth is doing 9 Speaking Engagements in the next 5 weeks.
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3 comments:
yes, but who could have predicted that our govn't would encourage banks to offer 'free money' by means of the lowest interest rates in history?
Garth Turner wasn't wrong, he just didn't expect THAT much stupidity on the part of the Canadian Government.
What he predicts WILL indeed become reality.. or most of it will. It was only delayed. The writing's on the wall now. Why do you think his speaking engagements have all be filled to capacity, with many unable to get tickets??
The 'bandaid' solution that will take years for us (and our children) to repay slowed down the inevitable. You only have to understand the very basics of economics to see this. We aren't so different from the US and we will see a POP in our housing market soon. Stay tuned for continuing months of lower and lower sales (and don't be fooled by 'average prices' which can be so easily skewed by the sale of multi-million dollar properties).
The real estate as an investment era is OVER... and Real Estate Agents had better find new careers.
FAST.
Well, Anonymous, it's a year later and sales are up, not down. Prices are up...and Garth's speaking tour has come to a dead stop.
Did you keep your day job? You won't make it very far as a fortune teller.
Garth was wrong! But he won't be wrong forever. The market is cyclical. There are many many reasons for why he will ultimately right. In the mean time enjoy the gravy train. Just know that it won't run on forever! Anyone remember the late 80's?
What happens if the government doesn't increase the CMHC Threhold?
What happens if interest rates do rise?
What about speculators?
What happens IF house prices decline and peoples loan to value ratio requires an influx of cash to qualify for the same mortage that they qualified for today? Can you say sell? But what if everyone else is selling?
What if there is an oversupply of condo's? Has anyone bothered to look at the number of cranes in Toronto lately?
How many people are receiving 6-10% raises every year to offset the appreciation of real estate? Oh wait, its only debt they are taking on because of nearly free mortgages?
Ahhh yes...but the automotive sector is booming and driving the canadian economy. Oh wait...but look at all of the oil...but wait...thats in alberta...oops...not the GTA. So what is driving the economy these days? Did Toronto become silicon valley and somone forgot to mention it?
Something is amiss.
Its the perfect storm!
When you get sucked in at todays prices don't ask for a bail out. The writing is on the wall? Its no longer if...its a question of when!
When you can rent for cheaper save your money for another day. It may be tomorrow or 2 years from now but the fall is coming and it isn't going to be pretty.
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